DIFFERENT OPINIONS
The opinions expressed by the authors of the articles in this section are for discussion purposes only and may not coincide with the position of the Russian Government and the Embassy
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What is it in the Russian-German relationship that helps it survive historical cataclysms so well?
Article by Sergey Karaganov, Dean of the School of International Economics and International Affairs of the National Research University Higher School of Economics (NRU HSE), Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense PolicyAlmost everything about this world is changing. Rebalancing of forces, rather fast by historical standards, is one of the most visible changes.
It’s been more than a year since the disturbances in Syria, which sets the time record of the “Arab spring” — no one of the leaders has managed to hold out for so long since the beginning of the unrests. “The long-liver” has been the President of Yemen Abdallah Saleh; however, he left the country after the attempt on his life, and rather than trying to hold on to his power he employed some ingenious maneuvering to hand it over in a safe way. So he did, and obtained some guarantees in addition.
Firstly, the events in Syria, as well as in Libya, from the very beginning failed to sit well with the idea of the “Arab spring” as popular demonstrations against authoritarian regimes in the Arab world. Right from the start, armed actions against the authorities took place in these two countries. Who provided the arms and encouraged their use, I am sure, will eventually become clear.
It is extremely complex. Economic turbulence, terrorism, threat of WMD proliferation, protests against authoritarian regimes, often resulting in disturbances and chaos, NATO’s use of force in an attempt to impose orders of West’s liking on this or that country, long-simmering regional conflicts ready to burst in fire – all of this is the contemporary world. Interweaving economies of various countries, integration processes and global scientific and technical progress – all of this is the contemporary world too. I’d rather not dwell on describing well-known events but turn to lessons we, as a state, should draw from them.
Not every year the humanity becomes witness to how swiftly the habitual image of the world can change. The year 2011 proved to be just like that as regards the Arab Middle East. It abounded in profound political shifts, the consequences of which will undoubtedly tell on the development not only of this region but also on the international geopolitical situation in general. We asked Professor Vitaly Naumkin, Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies, Doctor of History and Corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, to give his view of the meaning and effects of the “Arab revolution” and what ramifications they may eventually have.
The January/February 2012 issue of the magazine Foreign Affairs features an article with the shocking title: Time to Attack Iran: Why a Strike Is the Least Bad Option. It is indicative of the current mood and may set the tone for the rest of the year.
The world is getting more troublesome and increasingly challenging right before our eyes.
Hardly anyone would doubt that the Russian economy today is in want of fundamental changes. It must be less dependent on raw material resources and more on the intellectual potential of the country. It must not only rely on large and super large corporations, but also small and medium-size businesses. Russia’s economy must become really dynamic, innovative and modern, in other words, it has to be “smart” as they now say.
The period of political instability in the Arab countries of the Middle East can last longer than we think.
History develops in leaps, quiet times and stability are followed by periods of military and revolutionary unrest. One of the most surprising phenomena of 2011 was the so called Arab Spring – a series of revolutions and coups in the Middle Eastern countries after which seemingly unshakeable regimes have fallen. The calendar spring was followed by summer, summer by autumn, but there is no end in sight for the political “spring” in the Arab countries. How long more will this political boiling last? Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor Vitaly Naumkin thinks that the crisis is there to stay.
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